Market outlook
Make sense of the business
Everybody gets so much information all day long that they lose their common sense- Gertrude Stein
In a world of indices hitting new 52-week highs, individual stock prices are changing in a narrow range. In the immediate term, anything and everything can rattle the stock price; be it a downgrade, a change in weather or perhaps even a comment from Greece or Portugal. Focus on the company's business instead and the broader environment.
Markets in the US and Europe posted gains, with the Dow hitting a new 18-month high. Concerns over sovereign default have ebbed with Greece securing EU commitment on financial aid and Dubai getting a fresh bailout.
FII inflows have held up pretty strong post the Union Budget. Monday was no exception. Local funds though have been a bit more cautious. Among the key concerns since Budget has been the tepid show put up by the broader market. The same was on display on Monday as well. This does stick out like a sore thumb and calls for some caution.
With NAV dressing done with for the year, we see a flat to sedate start and less upside given the mixed trend across Asia.
Trading ideas (Time period: 1-3 days)
Andhra Bank (BUY, CMP Rs104, Target Rs110): On the daily chart, the stock has formed a rounding bottom pattern. The base for the same is around Rs97-98 levels. Since the second week of March 2010, the stock has been moving in a range of Rs104-97. On Monday, the stock attempted to break past the top of this trading range. In our view, the stock has formed a medium term bottom and the pullback which begun from Rs97 levels is likely to take the stock up to Rs110. The daily RSI is exhibiting positive divergences. Based on the above-mentioned evidences, we recommend traders with high risk appetite to buy the stock between the levels of Rs102-105 for an initial target of Rs110. A stop loss of Rs100 is recommended on all long positions.
Maruti (BUY, CMP Rs1,427, Target Rs1,475): The stock has seen a severe correction from a high of Rs1,520 in early March 2010 to a low of Rs1,360 last week. This was a panic bottom and the stock has rallied up to the current levels without a retest of this low. On the daily charts, the price movements appear to have formed a higher bottom formation. On Monday, the stock gave a close above its 200-day DMA. Traders can buy the stock between the levels of Rs1,420-1,435 with a stop loss of Rs1,405 for a short-term target of Rs1,475 in the coming trading sessions.
Derivative strategies (Time period: Till expiry)
± Long Bajaj Hindustan Ltd April Future @ Rs140 for the target price of Rs150 and stop loss placed at Rs135
Lot size: 1,425
Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs14,250 and net maximum loss Rs7,125.
± Long Hotel Leela Ventures Ltd April Future @ Rs49.40 for the target price of Rs53 and stop loss placed at Rs48
Lot size: 7,500.
Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs27,000 and net maximum loss Rs10,500.
Mutual funds
| Fund focus | |||||||
| Reliance Growth Fund | Invest | ||||||
| Fund manager | Sunil Singhania |
| Min investment | Rs5,000 | |||
| Latest NAV | Rs438.7 |
| Entry load | Nil | |||
| NAV 52 high/low | Rs442/201 |
| Exit load | 1% <1 yr | |||
| Latest AUM | Rs6,733cr |
| Latest dividend (under dividend option) | 25% (Mar 30, 2010) | |||
| Type | Open-ended |
| Benchmark | BSE 100 | |||
| Class | Equity – diversified |
| Asset allocation | Equity (90%), Debt (0%), Cash (10%) | |||
| Options | Growth & dividend |
| Expense ratio | 1.8% | |||
Event Update: Punj Lloyd – BUY
CMP: Rs178, Target: Rs198, Upside:10.8(%)
Punj Lloyd sold its 19.43% stake in Pipavav Shipyard to SKIL Infrastructure and SKIL Shipyard Holding Pvt Ltd for Rs6.6bn, translating into 20% discount to the closing price on 26th March, 2010. We expect the company to use this cash to repay some of its debt and ease pressure on its balance sheet. Its debt-equity at the end of Q3 FY10 increased to 1.45x from 1.32x sequentially. Also an improvement in the working capital cycle will allow the company to lower debt. Factoring this, we believe the company's PBT should witness 29% CAGR over FY09-12. However, it continues to face the risk of fresh write-offs during FY11. Smooth execution and commencement of billing from Libya will act as a trigger for the stock. We believe the recent correction in the stock provides room for upside, upgrade to BUY but maintain target price of Rs198/share.
Oil Monthly Update – March 2010
± Crude oil prices rise on a mom basis
± Refining margins jump on yoy basis
± Under recoveries jump for all four products on yoy basis
± Reliance, CPCL and Cairn outperform during March
Commodity Monthly Update – March 2010
± Dollar index extends gains for the fourth consecutive month
± Base metals trade sideways
± Chinese HRC export prices at 15-month high
Corporate Snippets
± ACC plans to process non-degradable waste materials like disposed water bottles, polythene and other waste materials to make cement at its Bargarh plant in western Orissa. (BS)
± GVK Power acquired 9.5% additional stake in GVK Gautami Power Ltd from the Hyderabad-based Nagarjuna Construction Company. (BL)
± Hindustan Unilever announced that it sold its remaining 49% stake in Capgemini Business Services (India) Ltd to Cap Gemini SA as part of an agreement signed in October 2006. (BS)
± L&T bagged Rs14bn order from IOC for supply of a 4.17mtpa FCC (fluidised catalytic cracker) reactor regenerator project for IOC's fuel refinery at Paradip, Orissa. (BL)
± Ranbaxy has entered into a pact with US-based Pfenex Inc for developing biosimilars. (BS)
± Japanese drug-maker Daiichi Sankyo, which owns 64% stake in Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd, has finally firmed up plans to de-list the firm from the stock exchanges. (FE)
± Colgate Palmolive has acquired the remaining 25% of share capital that it had in CC Health Care Products Pvt Ltd. (FE)
± SAIL signed a 50:50 JV agreement with Shipping Corporation of India to primarily take care of SAIL's shipping needs by owning and operating ships. (BL)
± Promoters of Unitech raised their stake in the real estate company to 45% from 43.84%. (BL)
± Havells India plans to increase its marketing spend by over 40% to Rs1bn by next fiscal and enhance its overseas retail footprints, starting with Africa. (ET)
± GMDC plans to invest Rs4.8bn in the next two financial years to generate 81MW of wind energy at two different places in the Gujarat. (BL)
± Punj Lloyd sold its entire stake of 19.43% in Pipavav Shipyard to its co-promoter, SKIL Infrastructure, for Rs6.6bn through an inter-se promoter transfer. (BL)
± Nagarjuna Construction Company secured new orders aggregating Rs9.7bn, including a deal from Nagarjuna Oil Corporation Ltd. (BL)
± IVRCL secured a mandate to execute four projects worth Rs8.7bn, covering canal system modernization and three water supply projects. (BL)
± Sanofi-Aventis, the world's third largest drug maker, has approached a US court against Wockhardt for challenging the patents of Allegra (fexofenadine hydrochloride), one of the largest selling anti-allergic drugs in the world. (BS)
± Indoco Remedies entered into a long-term drug supply pact with Aspen Pharmacare, the largest pharmaceutical manufacturer in Africa and one of the top 20 generics manufacturers in the world. (BS)
± Suven Life Sciences secured a product patent from the European Patent Office for its New Chemical Entity meant for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases. (BL)
± Kalanithi Maran, promoter of Sun TV, and the promoters of Spice-Jet are sparring over the price being offered for a majority stake in the budget carrier. (ET)
± SKIL Infrastructure, promoter of Pipavav Shipyard, has made an open offer to acquire 20% stake in the company for Rs8.2bn, at Rs61.5/share. (BS)
± MTNL has abandoned its bid to buy out Zambian telco Zamtel as BSNL too has backed out from the deal. (ET)
± The Supreme Court rejected the central government's plea to allow Lafarge, the French mining giant, to resume limestone mining in Meghalaya. (BS)
Economic snippets
± The country's crude oil import increased by 13.2% in February to 10.67mt over the corresponding period last year. (BL)
± The government got Rs99.3bn from its follow-on offer of NMDC shares and Rs136.2bn from divestment in NHPC, OIL, REC and NTPC, leaving it short by Rs14.5bn for its year's disinvestment target of Rs250bn. (BS)
± India has signed an agreement for Rs105bn official development assistance from Japan, which includes Rs16.5bn for the second phase of Delhi mass rapid transport system project, Rs44.2bn for the dedicated rail freight corridor and Rs29.3bn for Chennai metro. (BS)
± RBI has allowed Indian companies to buy back Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds, under both the automatic route and approval route until June 30. (FE)
± Four-laning of National Highway 40, which connects Shillong, capital of Meghalaya, with Guwahati, is expected to commence in 2010. (BS)
± The Centre has fixed a target of Rs46bn under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme for 2010-11, a growth of close to double the amount spent during 2009-10. (BS)
± Union Coal Minister said coal blocks would be allocated on the merit of the proposed power projects, including 'likeability' of production, within the current XIth Plan. (BS)
± A Gartner study indicates that the domestic BPO market is expected to grow at 25% in 2010 to touch US$1.2bn by 2011. (BS)
± The new Companies Bill will give SEBI the powers to look into the end-use of Initial Public Offerings. (BL)
± The Finance Secretary said that the government will borrow Rs2.9trn, 63% of its gross requirement, in the first half of 2010-11. (BL)
± The Government on Monday cleared 23 FDI proposals worth Rs23.3bn including that of the Pune-based auto components maker Bharat Forge. (BL)
± Setting a positive tone for Prime minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Washington DC to attend the April 1213 Nuclear Security Summit, US Ambassador Timothy J Roemer has announced the finalization of a pact with India on re-processing US-origin spent nuclear fuel, a critical step that will enable the two countries to implement their nuclear deal. (FE)
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