Market Mantra
Market outlook
Conviction takes a backseat!
A strong conviction that something must be done is the parent of many bad measures - Daniel Webster
Looks like the bulls have indeed run out of luck for now though we reckon the overall sentiment remains positive. Given the subdued global backdrop, we expect a soft opening for Indian bourses. The NSE Nifty might start the day below 5300. Expect heightened volatility ahead of the F&O expiry on Thursday. The near-term trading band for Nifty is seen between 5200 and 5400.
Equity markets worldwide retreated, snapping the recent sequence of gains. Fresh bad news from the debt-plagued euro-zone soured the mood. Excitement over the Chinese move on its currency has faded.
Separately, the UK announced spending cuts and tax increases to cut high budget gap, sending British shares lower. Major US indexes reversed earlier gains on the back of some disappointing housing data. The S&P 500 Index seems to be struggling to break above its 200-DMA.
Asian markets are mostly in red, with Japan's Nikkei ending the morning session down 1.7%. Fed policymakers will announce the outcome of its two-day meet. No major surprise is in the offing.
Trading ideas (Time period: 1-3 days)
ACC (SELL, CMP Rs862, Target Rs825): On the daily chart, the stock is trading near the lower band of the small consolidation pattern. A fall below Rs858 (200-DMA) will present great opportunity for the traders to jump in on the downtrend. An occurrence of this event indicates further selling and continuation of the downtrend. The stock had been moving in the range of Rs860-886 since last one week. Moreover, the stock has given a close below its 10-day DMA. The daily RSI has also shown a reversal from a neutral position along with the price movement. We recommend traders to sell the stock for a target of Rs825. It is advisable to maintain a stop loss of Rs878 on all short positions.
Crompton Greaves (BUY above Rs257, Target Rs270): Recent correction from interim peak of Rs263.5 has led price to retrace 38.2% of its entire rally which began from the trough of right shoulder placed at Rs235 of Inverted H&S pattern. Hence, price is back to the support area coinciding with neckline of Inverted H&S formation. The peak of right shoulder of this pattern is currently placed at Rs251.75 and should form as a solid base from where prices may begin its next leg of up move, thus adhering to theory of higher tops and higher bottoms. In case stock is successful to move above levels of Rs257, the short term correction phase is likely to get void. Hence, we advise initiating long positions in the stock above Rs257 with stop loss of Rs252 for a target of Rs270.
Derivative strategies (Time period: Till expiry)
± Short ICICI Bank June Future in range of Rs890-892 for the target price of Rs860 with a stop loss placed at 906.
Lot size: 350
Remarks: Net maximum profit of 10,500 and net maximum loss Rs5,250.
± Short L&T June Future in range of Rs1823-1826 for the target price of Rs1787 and stop loss placed at 1841
Lot size: 200
Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs7,200 and net maximum loss Rs3,600.
Mutual funds
| Fund focus | |||||||
| ICICI Prudential Dynamic Fund | Invest | ||||||
| Fund manager | S Naren |
| Min investment | Rs5,000 | |||
| Latest NAV | Rs99.8 |
| Entry load | Nil | |||
| NAV 52 high/low | Rs100/66 |
| Exit load | 1% <1 yr | |||
| Latest AUM | Rs2,160cr |
| Latest dividend (under dividend option) | 12% (Feb 15, 2010) | |||
| Type | Open-ended |
| Benchmark | S&P CNX Nifty | |||
| Class | Equity – diversified |
| Asset allocation | Equity (83%), Debt (0%), Cash (17%) | |||
| Options | Growth & dividend |
| Expense ratio | 2% | |||
Corporate Snippets
± Reliance Industries is close to buying a 45% stake in shale gas assets owned by the US-based Pioneer Natural Resources for US$1.35bn. (BS)
± Reliance Industries plans to invest more than US$3bn over the next four to five years to build capacity for its entry into the fertilizer sector. (ET)
± NTPC's decision to re-tender for the bulk supply of super critical boilers may derail its plans to expedite its 12th plan capacity addition program. (FE)
± Bharti Airtel plans to spend US$100mn in the next three years on network expansion in Malawi. (ET)
± L&T has been disqualified on technical grounds in NTPC's tender for 11 sets of supercritical boilers (and turbines) and the consequent re-tendering has invigorated other boiler manufacturers. (BL)
± Wipro plans to hire more locals for overseas operations. (BL)
± French media and telecom giant Vivendi is negotiating with Reliance Communications to buy a 26% stake in the firm, as the Anil Ambani-led company seeks to bring down the level of debt. (ET)
± Tata Power has approached the MERC against the State Load Despatch Centre's refusal to schedule 160MW of power to its distribution company, Tata Power Distribution. (BS)
± Sun Pharmaceutical settled the patent litigation with Finland-based Orion over generic versions of Stalevo and Comtan tablets, which are used for the treatment of Parkinsons disease. (ET)
± NMDC to decide on the prices at which the mineral would be supplied to its customers by the month-end. (BS)
± Rabobank International Holding BV sold 11% stake in YES Bank for Rs9.8bn to meet the RBI guidelines as the Netherlands-based group seeks to set up its own banking operations in India. (BS)
± Videocon Industries has got shareholders approval to raise up to Rs10bn through placement of shares. (ET)
± Wockhardt promoters, Khorakiwala Holdings & Investments Pvt Ltd, has pledged 61.47% holding in the company.(FE)
± Shree Cement plans to invest Rs4.5mn this year to set up a 1.5mn ton clinker and a grinding units in Rajasthan. (ET)
± Shoppers Stop plans to invest Rs2.5bn in opening ~25 more stores in the next four years. (BS)
± Shoppers Stop plans to raise Rs3bn through a QIP over the next two quarters. (ET)
± Vedanta Resources has put its latest plan to hive off its aluminium business under Vedanta Aluminium on hold. (BS)
± Cox & Kings plans to raise Rs20bn, in equity and debt, to fund its expansion plans. (FE)
± Taj GVK Hotels & Resorts is scouting for more buyouts even as its latest property in Hyderabad, Taj Vivanta, gets ready by December 2010 for commercial operations. (BL)
± Piramal Healthcare plans to acquire Canadian firm BioSyntech's assets for C$3.9mn. (FE)
± At least four global cement majors, Lafarge, CRH, Heidelberg Cement and Intalicementi, are in the race to buy a little-known cement company in Maharashtra, Murli Industries, with a total capacity of 2.9mn tons. (BS)
± Jindal Powers plans for a 2,400MW plant at Raigarh in Chattisgarh has run into trouble, as the environment ministry has withdrawn its letter prescribing terms of reference as the private producer is understood to have gone ahead with the construction of the plant without taking any of the requisite environmental clearances. (ET)
Economic snippets
± An EGoM will meet on June 25 to decide on pricing of petrol, diesel, kerosene and cooking gas. (ET)
± India has set an ambitious target of making 2012 the year of double digit growth even as it grapples with the twin problems of mounting deficit and rising inflation. (ET)
± India may yet again miss power capacity addition target for a Plan period as the country is likely to add around 55,000MW of generation capacity against the targeted 62,000MW in the 11th Five-Year Plan (2007-12). (ET)
± TRAI is considering a reduction of the existing pricing formula for broadcasters on DTH. (FE)
± The information technology sector is turning buoyant again with a healthy surge in deal conversions during the April-June period, resulting in a slew of client pacts and an assortment of tie-ups across verticals. (FE)
± The government on Tuesday received Rs302bn as fee towards broadband wireless spectrum from all successful bidders. (FE)
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